In January, US seniors will get an 8.7% increase in their social security payments - the highest in more than 40 years. While I'm glad for them, it sounds inflationary to me. Do we think JPOW is thinking about this in advance of next week's FOMC?
I’m honestly curious what you clowns think “pivot” actually means. Last I knew “pivot” meant changing directions in a 180 degree fashion which would equal when the FED goes from raising interest rates to then cutting interest rates.
Would the “pivot” term actually come into play when Daddy Powell actually has the first rate cut?
First it was “rate cuts = pivot”
Then it was “no more rate hikes = pivot”
Then it was “slower rate hikes = pivot”
Now it is “talks of slower rate hikes = pivot”
Yeah yeah the market is “6 months ahead” with its forward looking mindset…until it’s not.
The fuck does pivot mean.
Gain Thanks to this guy: u/nightingle26 (4Hrss ago) "This is what I get for trading SPY and SPX options." Hey, your trash is someone else's...
Chart Ever in doubt just switch out folks & watch "100 week MA" on all of the asset class you can chart...!!! ( The Perfect Storm is brewing )gallery
I've heard Santa rally thrown around non stop over the last few weeks, so thought I would share this. The Santa rally is only meant to explain the rally in the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the next year. Not all of December.
Also as stated in the screenshot it's more of an indicator of the following year, than a guarantee. It's just most years are bullish, but since everyone expects next year to be trash it may not manifest.
I'm short like crazy, so you can just count this as confirmation bias, but I would look into it before betting your life savings on a Santa rally. below are my positions, all bought on 12/2.
360 puts on JPM 74dte (multiple strikes)
220 puts on WMT 74dte (multiple strikes)
No risk management amount of shares in SQQQ and DRV.
This market never seizes to amaze me… it really is pretty crazy in this market how fast those day trading have to adapt. Just on Friday I was pretty set on playing calls if we closed over 405.2 as that was the major support and with that massive EOD rally I wouldn’t have expected a -1.8% day today.
The reason I bring this up is that I feel it’s always a good reminder that CASH is a position… Yes there is a pretty strong statistic out there that buy the close and sell the open on SPY has returned exponentially more than any intraday buy and hold strat but that only works if we picked the direction.
For instance the technical pointed to a rally this week, however, I knew with FOMC next week and this being pre-fomc week we very well could see risk come off and that’s exactly what happened. Had I followed strictly the technical id be starting my week with a big L.
Im not saying we should never swing a play as I do it quite often but when we do it must be a high conviction play.
During Fridays weekly market recap and analysis I mentioned I saw a pretty equal case for 390 and I also saw a pretty equal case for 420 by EOW. Well as of right now it looks like SPY is going to go for that 390 support test possibly.
Looking at the SPY daily chart here you can see we are still in that broad blue rising wedge and we have now form a carrot top (v top) that actually when met with the support of the blue rising wedge forms a beautiful breakout/ down triangle.
This means tomorrow if we lose 397.8 support we break the rising wedge that dates all the way back to the October CPI and the 52week low of the year. However, if we breakout back over 404 tomorrow then the carrot top resistance is broken and we should naturally retest 405.2 resistance.
The other important thing to note that happened today is that we are now back in that 395.2 to 402.4 range that we have been trading within since November 11th. Of the last 16 trading days all but 4 trading days has seen the daily close within that $7.2 range. We really have been on a pretty massive consolidation period since the November CPI. Which honestly is kind of surprising. You would think with how bullish all these big wigs are and talking points on CNBC and how many people are screaming for 450 by EOY that we would be making some upward progress… but in reality SPY has only pushed up a total of 3.8% over the 21days since the last CPI.
That means that 5.5% green day we closed on November 10th is almost double the total upside move that SPY has put in over the last 23 total days since CPI. If we are so bullish… why are we stuck here?
Today they released the MoM CPI/ CORE consensus numbers and Bloomberg terminal put out the CPI/ CORE projections over the weekend. I am wondering if markets remain on edge going into this CPI and FOMC.
I am reminded heavily of September CPI here and this whole movement and setup.
Futures gave back everything and then some of that red daily candle we put in on Friday.
Futures is now trading back near that key 4000 pivot point. Below 4000 we look for 3910 retest, however if bulls can defend 4000 here we very well could see a breakout back to 4095 by EOW.
Key support- 4000 -> 3960
Key resistance- 4050 -> 4075
Note- I am taking a break from tesla… therefore to not distract myself no more Tesla TA for a while. Will re-evaluate come the new year.
Really big green day for the VIX here which is kinda surprising as there was some news about apple, china, oil etc. but really nothing monumental. However, we did once again fail to close over the daily 8ema. Tomorrow if we were to see the VIX break out over 21.4 that would break the VIX bear channel that dates back to October 12th.
That to me would signal a bigger POTENTIAL that we are seeing the peak of the bear market rally and that we are going to start looking for a drop on Spy. However, to feel more confident in that we need to see the daily 20ema closed over on the VIX and I would like to see the consensus and preferably results of CPI/ FOMC.
$5k/ 10% challenge-
This challenge continues to go well as we enter the 4th week of this challenge. I look forward to continuing this challenge and seeing how the results fair over a longer period of time.
I had a pretty great Monday which always makes me happy to start the week off. It can be defeating starting the week with a red day and feeling like you are in catch up mode. I had some really nice plays today, however, I believe all but one of my scalps had I held 5-10 seconds longer would have 3-4x every single time. The last put I closed at 4.6% 4x’d the instant I closed my play and went on to nearly 9x before SPY finally bounced.
The L2L are starting the week off nice and strong too. I am having some difficulty with these L2L plays in this time range and still working on trying to play the best DTE for those. On some plays it seems 3dte theta eats too fast if the move doesn’t hit instantly and on other plays 4dte just doesn’t seem worth the R:R. However, per the recommendation of another trader this week I am going to start using some OTM contracts for the L2L plays to see how that changes things for good or bad. This week I am also utilizing a -15% stop loss on all L2L plays… I am also considering this on scalps too but haven’t made the adjustment yet.