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u/tommytornado 11d ago
This graphic looks like there's a lot of variation, but there isn't really. These are the actual figures in a heatmap...
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u/BreakfastsforDinners 11d ago
Thanks for sharing this. I was curious how many years of data were used in this, and this confirms my hypothesis that the dataset is too small. I noticed that there is a weekly pattern in most of the months (ex: April 4th, 11th, 18th, 25th) and when I checked, these are the only dates that had 3 weekend dates in the period from 2000-2014. All other dates have 4 or 5 weekend dates (Induced deliveries/C sections are usually not scheduled on weekends).
I mean the dataset and analysis is fine if you're born in those years, but if you want an idea of the population as a whole, this is not enough data (and is certainly misleading if not explained with the data). OR we could normalize for this day-of-week inconsistency.
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u/Higgins1st 11d ago
I was confused too.
My even smaller data set has my birthday being very rare and December 25th being common.
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u/aussie_punmaster 10d ago
My even even smaller dataset has my birthday being most common, and no other days with birthdays.
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u/ChrisGnam OC: 1 11d ago
Honestly this is way more variation than I was expecting! Christmas has half as many births as 9/12. I was expecting the max variation to be only a few percent.
The time spans like mid January that are totally stable really highlight how weird the standout days are. Which is neat!
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u/Denk-doch-mal-meta 11d ago
But Christmas is an outlier based on planned C-sections. Variation is more from 10 to 12.7. Still not that small for a random dataset. But as someone mentioned, 15 years are not enough valid for this.
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u/erection_detection_ 11d ago
This is usa births only. OP doesn't say if it's world wide.
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u/tommytornado 11d ago
OP doesn't say if it's world wide.
OP said:
This data represents 4,153,303 US-born babies only between 2000 and 2014.
Top 10 Most Common: Sep 12 (0.307%) Sep 19 (0.306%), Sep 20 (0.302%), Dec 19 (0.300%), Sep 10 (0.300%), Dec 20 (0.299%),Sep 18 (0.299%), Aug 8 (0.299%), Sep 26 (0.299%), Sep 17 (0.298%)
Top 10 Least Common: Dec 25 (0.155%), Jan 1 (0.186%), Dec 24 (0.193%), Jul 4 (0.212%), Jan 2 (0.231%), Dec 26 (0.238%), Nov 23 (0.238%), Nov 25 (0.240%), Nov 27 (0.241%), Nov 24 (0.241%)
Data Source: Kaggle.com/datasets/ayessa/birthday
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u/erection_detection_ 10d ago
Thanks. You're right. I expected some sort of indication in the title of the post that it was US only
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u/tommytornado 10d ago
I agree with you, it would have made sense. However, OP also said, "How common IN your Birthday!". So there's that.
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u/amatulic OC: 1 11d ago
Looks like there are a lot of "Christmas gifts" being born 9 months after the Winter holidays!
(I was one of them)
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u/Kuningas_Arthur 11d ago
I was born early September 1991.
My mom and dad got married late December 1990.
I have my theories.
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u/ShelfordPrefect 11d ago
"The first baby can come at any time; after that they take nine months"
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u/IncaThink 11d ago
Me, looking at my parents wedding photo: "Hey! I'm in that picture!"
My mother: "Yes you are, you little smart ass."
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u/biggles1994 10d ago
My wife has been to three weddings in her life and she was pregnant at all of them.
She was pregnant with our first child at her sisters wedding. With our second child at our own wedding, and with our third child at her brothers wedding.
We’re due to attend another wedding in October 😬
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u/Laney20 11d ago
I once, completely innocently, asked my mom how long after they moved into the house was I born. I'd always known it was about the same time, but wasn't sure on the exact timing of everything.
She said, very quickly, "9 months".
Sigh... At least I don't have to wonder?
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u/mikeysgotrabies 11d ago
I used to work with an old man in California. Whenever it would rain he would say "it's baby making weather". This chart proves he was correct. 9 months after the rainy season are the hot spots.
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u/TemplesOfSyrinx 11d ago
Wouldn't the rainy season vary depending on what part of the world you're from? The rainy season in India and China is kind of around June/July, so wouldn't that mean there would be more births in March/April?
Or, perhaps this is just US or European data.
Edit: Yes, a post lower down suggests that this is US data. I think you're right.
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u/mikeysgotrabies 11d ago
Yeah it must be US data. The guy who said this was from the Philippines. I imagine their chart would look different.
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u/enemy_of_your_enema 11d ago
But the rainy season is different in different places and this chart is likely based on data from lots of different places.
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u/ShelfordPrefect 11d ago
Judging by the massive downtick on the 4th of July and in late November I'd guess it's based on data from the USA
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u/SonOfAvicii 11d ago
Agreed
The stark avoidance of September 11 as a delivery date tells me this is U.S. data from sometime within the last 20 years. There was no such reason to shun that date before 2001.
The cause of few births on "happy" holidays on the other hand, is tied to doctors and medical staff taking the day off, not usually mothers consciously avoiding delivery on these dates.
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u/dubdubdub3 11d ago
Yup. Nobody schedules a C-section on a holiday. They usually do it right before or right after
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u/alles_en_niets 11d ago
Also, scheduled deliveries. The US data will show a stronger pattern of scheduled dates as a result of the high number of caesarean deliveries.
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u/goody82 11d ago
OBGYN in El Paso told me that people specifically wanted Christmas babies. Noticing on this chart that there is a big blue area there. Makes me think hospital staff was willing to induce before the holidays, but avoiding that on the holidays themselves.
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u/vtTownie 11d ago
So are people holding out on sept 11 and having their kid on sept 12?
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u/cixzejy 11d ago
Yeah people actually do. When I was born apparently there were women crying after finding out thier kid would be born on 9/11
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u/vtTownie 11d ago
That’s wild. I was born in 9/11 but before 2001 (go dox me with this info I guess) and I’ve never had it be a like weird or bad thing, just an “oh interesting” thing.
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u/oatmealparty 11d ago
There are only four birthdays I ever remember: my wife, my daughter, my mother and my friend who was born on September 11th. Never forget.
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u/powerlesshero111 11d ago
I knew someone born on 9/11. She was very upset that the twin towers coming down took away from her birthday every year since 2001. But she was super selfish and a pretty big bitch all the time too.
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u/Scoot_AG 11d ago
Idk I wouldn't find it selfish to be upset that your birthday is ruined for the rest of your life, no matter the reason
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u/BadMoonRosin 11d ago
Ehh. We're already at the point where nearly all university students weren't even alive on 9/11. I don't see any of the "Never Forget" meme posts on the anniversary anymore like I used to. Like it or not, it's sliding into history now.
Did any baby boomers have their birthdays "ruined for life", by being born on the Pear Harbor anniversary? "Day that will live in infamy!", lol... I couldn't even tell you which day that was without checking Wikipedia.
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u/delorf 11d ago
Dec 7 is Pearl Harbor Day. I know because that's my best friend's birthday. She isn't a boomer so it didn't impact her enjoyment of the day.
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u/KuriousKhemicals 11d ago
December 7th 1941!
... I shouted this out for a trivia game just 2 weeks ago. My grandparents were in diapers at that time so I'm somewhat proud.
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u/d_d_d_o_o_o_b_b_b 11d ago
Selfish or not, it’s easy to forget that from 2001 to around 2007, 9/11 really dominated social consciousness in that era. It was such a shock. It was the reason for so much legislation, multiple wars, and it took them forever to figure out what the hell to even do with the site. It was a smoldering hole for a long long time. It wasn’t until Obama came along, and the 2008 financial crisis hit that the national focus finally shifted to something else. Then after they got Bin Laden it finally started to recede into the rear view mirror. I also knew someone with a 9/11 birthday and I felt bad for her for years. 9/11 anniversaries were strange and sad in those days.
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u/stoneman9284 11d ago
Our doctor gave us like a 4-5 day range and asked when we wanted to do the c-section so a lot of these (9/11 or 2/14) may be a result of that too
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u/RealMoonBoy 10d ago
Inductions too. My wife had still not delivered after 41 weeks, so we had a last-minute induction scheduled in early September. Everything was booked except the evening of September 10th lol. Jokes on them though, the labor was 30 hours.
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u/Truth_Autonomy 11d ago
Either holding out on the 11th or pushing hard on the 10th it seems.
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u/charrcheese OC: 2 11d ago
I once put my birthday in a date of conception calculator and it suggested one day after my dads birthday. So I assume I was a birthday present.
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u/Mundane-Student7037 11d ago
My due date was exactly 9 months after my Dad's birthday.
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u/DramaticStatement431 10d ago
I started to laugh, then remembered I was supposed to be due a month and a half later than I was born… so doing the math puts me, well, dad’s bday! Good grief.
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u/nemom 11d ago
I'm guessing Feb 29 is the least common.
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u/Kraz_I 11d ago
OP mentioned the actual rates in a post which vary from 0.307% born on Sep 12th to 0.155% on Dec 25th. You'd expect Feb 29th to be at least 1/4 as rare as other dates, which suggests to me they multiplied it by 4.
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u/Chief-Drinking-Bear 11d ago
Would be kind of an odd choice to multiply it by 4. Not only brings the total over 100 but there is also no logical reason to multiply it by 4 except to make the spread of the colors tighter
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u/halberdierbowman 11d ago
I disagree. I'd read the graph as showing how likely a birth is in any particular hour of the year. So if it's Feb 29th, then how likely is a birth during this hour? The time period of Feb 29 is "smaller", hence multiplying the number by ~4 would make the colors match all the other days. Otherwise there's no way to compare one hour to another.
The graph isn't showing "how likely does a day exist on a calendar," so the data should be normalized to how common that day is. Otherwise we'll just get a very prominent Feb 29 that's distracting and doesn't tell us anything we don't already know.
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u/avec_serif OC: 2 11d ago
I just grabbed the data and calculated that only 0.067% of all births happened on Feb 29th, with Dec 25 being the second-least common at 0.155%.
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u/Glittering-Jello-935 11d ago
It appears people do a lot of fucking when it's cold out
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u/Bezude 11d ago
IMO it's less to do with the cold and more to do with the fact that Thanksgiving and Christmas cause people to think about family. Thinking about family makes some people want to add to their family.
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u/BroDudeBruhMan 11d ago
Fun fact for all you fellow July 17th’ers: the calendar emoji is our birthday 📅
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u/Riccovic 11d ago
Winter is for making babies
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u/Drach88 11d ago
It's business time.
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u/pedanticPandaPoo 11d ago
🎵 Ohh girl tonight we're gonna make love
You know how I know? Because it's Wednesday 🎵
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u/lemonickous 11d ago
Is July a very unsexy month?
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u/dba1990 11d ago
My theory is that (despite being the season of bikinis, flip-flops and other semi-nude beach clothing) not a lot of couples want to mate during heat waves. But there are exceptions to this rule.
Source; I’m one of them as an April birth.
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u/Mapleleafguy83 11d ago
Oh god your comment made me just realize that I (April bday) was probably conceived on my parents anniversary (in July)...
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u/TheWayOfEli 11d ago
December 25th is very rare. I don't know why Jesus is so weird about sharing his birthday with people.
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u/markojoke 11d ago
I think it's because the appointment for a C-section can be moved by a few days and hospitals avoid Christmas days. Therefore more before and after the holidays.
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u/Leather_Dragonfly529 11d ago
Reminds me of the sorry that more babies are born between 9am-5pm now than ever because doctors choose to induce earlier than to get called in at nature’s timing.
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u/imdethisforyou 11d ago
Not just doctors, but parents too.
Some prefer to schedule it in advance so they can plan around it.
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u/Illeazar 11d ago
Yeah, even with 100% normal/healthy pregnancies, doctors will often schedule the birth to happen during work hours just for the convenience.
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u/Chayoss 11d ago
And safety! Better to have the full suite of daytime radiologists, surgeons, intensivists, anaesthetists, etc already in hospital and around for an emergency than have to chance it at 2am.
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u/pm_me_ur_th0ng_gurl 11d ago
I'm just thinking about how 100 years ago childbirth was like a 10% mortality rate, but now we are able to schedule it in advance.
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u/buckzor122 11d ago
Not just c-sections, but inductions for natural birthing too. My son was born on 23rd of December because of the same reason, he was due on like 19th so the doctors suggested to induce to avoid giving birth on Christmas.
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u/vegastar7 11d ago
It would suck to be born on the 25th: you’d probably grow up getting one present that serve both as Christmas and Birthday presents. Not to mention that you’re competing with Jesus and Santa for attention. I know someone who was born on December 27, and even then, it was a struggle to not get overshadowed by the holidays.
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u/Royal-Description138 11d ago
25th baby here. I can confirm the present thing., not to mention having a party any time around this period is hard, my birthday is mostly forgotten, even by my parents. I tried to make it Dec 1st for awhile but it really carries a not my "real" birthday type vibe for people.
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u/beef_is_here 11d ago
Yeah, it’s impossible to have a birthday party. I even tried a “birthday in July” party, but like you said it’s just not the same. My parents always went out of their way to make Christmas and my birthday two separate events though. Christmas was in the morning, and then my birthday would be after dinner.
As I got older I just basically ignore my birthday, and now that I have kids I just focus on Christmas.
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u/Pale_Cartographer960 11d ago
I was born on the 26th. I never threw a birthday party as a kid because all my friends had no time
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u/Derpsteppin 11d ago
Christmas birthday here, the present thing is absolutely true. Growing up, I was always pretty annoyed at the whole thing. It always felt so unfair getting overshadowed by Christmas. As mentioned by others, one of the hardest things is trying to actually plan and have a birthday party. Obviously my whole family would get together for Christmas so that would serve as my birthday party each year, but I can only recall a small handful of times that my parents ever had an actual birthday party for me, attended by my friends. And even on those few occasions, it always had to be a few weeks before or after Christmas because of how busy people usually are with family plans around the holidays.
It made me pretty bitter about my birthday all the way until I became an adult and had a complete change in the way I view my birthday. For context, my extended family is very large, and so is my wife's. Between grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, parents, and siblings, there are typically 3 or 4 birthday parties A MONTH, many times celebrating more than one birthday at a time. With so many parties, and family spread across a couple states, obviously everyone can't make it to every single birthday party.
Except mine.
It took me way too long to realize how special it is that on MY birthday, EVERYONE gets together. I get to see each and every one of my family members, some for the first time since the previous year, especially if they live farther away. Between my mom's side, my dad's side, and both sides of my wife's family, Christmas Eve and Christmas are usually a nonstop marathon of Christmas parties and as exhausting as it can get, I now absolutely cherish the opportunity to spend that time with everyone.
In addition, trying to plan things as an adult and realizing how busy people's schedules are around that time of the year made me extremely thankful that my parents were able to put together even just a small handful of birthday parties for my friends to attend when I was a kid. And because I now fully understand how hard it is to plan stuff around Christmas, I'm now completely fine with celebrating with some of my friends, no matter the exact date. It doesn't feel any less special if it's not ON my actual birthday. It sounds cliche, but it really is the thought that counts.
To end on a wholesome story and likely the exact moment my attitude towards my birthday changed was a few years ago when I must have mentioned to my wife (girlfriend at the time) about how I didn't really enjoy Christmas because my birthday seems to always just be a second thought. Well, Christmas arrived, and we headed over to her grandparents' house where the entire family was getting together. She made sure we were the last to arrive and when we did, before there was any mention of Christmas this or Christmas that, they turned off the lights as we walked in, and brought out a giant birthday cake and sang me happy birthday. I, a grown man, literally cried.
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u/why_not_fandy 11d ago
Is it just me or is a Christmas Eve baby less common in this viz than a leap year baby?
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u/calvinball14 11d ago
hi! what is the scale here? is purple 5% more common than blue? 0.5%?
also interesting that dec 31 and jan 1 aren't common, with the tax break and all.
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11d ago
Maybe the numbers will skew next year now that you've pointed out the loophole 🤣
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u/calvinball14 11d ago
it's been at least 8 years since I delivered a baby, but IIRC, the government lets a Jan 1 baby "count" toward the previous year - presumably to prevent hasty inductions.
of course, I just say, wouldn't this just move the same incentive/risk to 24 hours later? or maybe it takes the edge off that number due to confusion and other motivations.
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u/ToddlerOlympian 11d ago
December 31st and New Years Day are uncommon because doctors schedule an induction beforehand so they can have the holiday. Notice the brightness of the week prior to those dates.
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u/a_n_d_r_e_ 11d ago
It's scary how many people choose Valentine day for their baby (it's not by chance, clearly, but cesarean and induced deliveries).
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u/a_n_d_r_e_ 11d ago
Same, but reverse, on Christmas. 'Too many' the days right after it, while on Christmas day there are only few.
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u/3McChickens 11d ago
I would guess scheduling c-sections around holidays. From my experience, they want to get patients out of hospital for holiday and my daughter was pulled forward a few days to make sure we were heading home by Christmas.
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u/mikevago 11d ago
My niece's birthday is 12/23 because my sister-in-law's doctor didn't want to work on Christmas so she did the c-section early. I imagine that's a pretty common thing.
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u/Stelus42 11d ago
Not that its unexpected, but I do find it funny that all of September is so strong, except for the sudden dip on the 11th.
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u/abrams666 11d ago
Can you please make a heatmap where the 40 weeks before are heated ?
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u/Zac_1244 11d ago
As someone who is colourblind, I have no clue what I am looking at lol.
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u/fuckmyboringlife 11d ago
There's no way that 12/25 is a less common birthday than 2/29
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u/NarcissusLovesEcho OC: 4 11d ago
A lot of scheduled deliveries right before and after Christmas.
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u/Peldor-2 11d ago
You get a nice tax deduction for the year if you get that baby out before the new year rolls around. A fair number of people get induced just for that reason.
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u/bicycle_mice 11d ago
I’m due 12/27 and will def be inducing to get baby out before the year end.
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u/underlander OC: 5 11d ago
I don’t understand the decision to use a divergent color scheme. There’s a value that goes from 0 up. Having a diverging color scheme would make sense if there were, like, negative births or something. And I’m not sure why the units aren’t labeled. What’s the scale here?
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u/Grey_Lion 11d ago
Where? Global? Us? Europe????
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u/Cosmic_Colin 11d ago
Definitely USA only. There's a Thanksgiving effect, which other countries don't celebrate.
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u/plotset 11d ago edited 11d ago
This data represents 4,153,303 US-born babies only between 2000 and 2014.
Top 10 Most Common: Sep 12 (0.307%) Sep 19 (0.306%), Sep 20 (0.302%), Dec 19 (0.300%), Sep 10 (0.300%), Dec 20 (0.299%),Sep 18 (0.299%), Aug 8 (0.299%), Sep 26 (0.299%), Sep 17 (0.298%)
Top 10 Least Common: Dec 25 (0.155%), Jan 1 (0.186%), Dec 24 (0.193%), Jul 4 (0.212%), Jan 2 (0.231%), Dec 26 (0.238%), Nov 23 (0.238%), Nov 25 (0.240%), Nov 27 (0.241%), Nov 24 (0.241%)
Data Source: Kaggle.com/datasets/ayessa/birthday
Tools: PlotSet.com
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u/SirJelly 11d ago
What is the actual difference between the most and least common day? Your legend could use numeric labels.
I can't imagine it's a huge variance.
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u/peacefinder 11d ago
100/365.25 = 0.274.
The highest value is only 12% over the average rate.
The lowest value though is only 57% of average. That’s a bit bonkers.
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u/Pschobbert 11d ago
This information would be more helpful if it was included in the graphic itself.
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u/-Igg- 11d ago
Since this is US data, do you think there might be differences in a southern hemisphere dataset (due to the seasons are inverted winter<->summer) ?
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u/Casartelli OC: 1 11d ago
Ive created this analysis for a different country (still northern hemisphere) and posted it here couple years ago. But the dates are quite different compared to the US.
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u/avec_serif OC: 2 11d ago
I just grabbed the data and calculated that only 0.067% of births happened on Feb 29. Why not mention this as the least common day?
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u/ballrus_walsack 11d ago
Weird 4th of July less common birthday… is this data USA only?
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u/get_the_reference_ 11d ago
When the weather's hot and sticky
That's no time for dunkin dickie
When the frost is on the pumpkin
That's the time for dickie dunkin
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u/Silver5comet 11d ago
What’s up with July 13 and Dec 12? All the superstitious 13ths are a bit lower than the surrounding days but July is a big outlier. 7/13 weird combo of lucky and unlucky? And is 12/12 really a spike just cause it’s a double number?
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u/vendorsfan1 11d ago
Looks like the 13th is (relatively) rare across the board, probably due to superstition. Anyone have a theory on the December 12th hot spot?
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u/place_artist OC: 1 11d ago
Weird hotspot on Valentines Day (Feb 14), which I would have expected to be a common time of conceiving more so than birth.